Optionvox uses option trading as a prediction market. Implied future stock price distributions for call and put option outlooks are computed from current transaction data at quarterly expiry dates with nonparametric methods. Volatility is estimated from implied distributions, and annualized to the standard format.
A trade combination is computed that yields positive under a range of stock price outcomes.
- annualized volatility: standard deviation of one-year log-returns
- call option: a contract giving the buyer the option to purchase a share of stock at a specified strike price before the expiry date
- put option: a contract giving the buyer the option to sell a share of stock at a specified price before the expiry date
- prediction market: a market for trading on the outcome of an event
