Optionvox uses option trading as a prediction market.
Implied future stock price distributions for call and put option outlooks are computed from current transaction data at quarterly expiry dates with nonparametric methods.
Volatility is estimated from implied distributions, and annualized to the standard format, and is
visible in
graph dispersion. A
trade combination of several options on a stock is computed that yields positive at all the strike price values.
This arbitrage combination usually exists in market trading, challenging textbook theory, and is found with optimization of a non-differentiable function.
- annualized volatility: standard deviation of one-year log-returns
- call option: a contract giving the buyer the option to purchase a share of stock at a specified strike price before the expiry date
- put option: a contract giving the buyer the option to sell a share of stock at a specified price before the expiry date
- prediction market: a market for trading on the outcome of an event
